Eight states — Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin — will be voting on constitutional amendments Nov. 7 to define marriage as being between one man and one woman. Just how close are the expected votes?
Some analysts, like Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C., seem to think that because such amendments have already passed in 20 states, this latest crop of amendments will also pass.
"The history, obviously, is that they have passed by substantial margins in almost every state that they’ve been on the ballot," Keeter told CitizenLink. "I don't know of any polling that suggests that the ones that are on the ballot this year are likely to fail, although there is more opposition perhaps than we saw in 2004."
But Mona Passignano, state issues analyst for Focus on the Family Action, warns against buying into the popular perception. Some are in danger of losing.
"We've got five very strong states, but we've got three — Colorado, Arizona and Wisconsin — that are polling very close to the 50-percent margin, and in some cases, even less," she said.
In Arizona, for instance, Proposition 107 could go either way, according to Cathi Herrod, president of the Center for Arizona Policy.
"It will be a very close election," she said. "There's one poll out, that we don't really rely on, that has us losing by 26 points. But the more accurate polling all depends on the wording of the question. If you poll on the exact language of the amendment, we win. If you poll on loaded terms like, 'denying benefits,' we lose."
There are several reasons why the amendment is currently a toss-up. For one, the local news media have helped to confuse the issue.
"The news media in Arizona refuse to talk about the issue of gay marriage and what this amendment is really about," Herrod said.
Another major problem, she said, is that Arizona is a Western libertarian state. But perhaps the biggest reason for the closeness of the race is complacency among those who support marriage as one man and one woman.
"The average voter sees 20 states passing these amendments by a 70 percent average vote, and the perception is that they are easy to pass," Herrod said. "As we well know, they have become more difficult to pass as time has gone on. The other side has gotten smarter in their strategy; they have had more funding than they did in the initial go-round, and these amendments have a tougher time than they did before."
She said values voters need to show up if the amendment in her state stands a chance of passage.
And that's true for every other state that has a marriage amendment on the ballot, according to Passignano.
"Christians need to make sure they vote," she said. "In the other 20 states that have passed marriage amendments, even if the polling numbers didn't look good at first, what happened was Christians showed up at the polls.
"As long as Christians show up at the polls, we win. But if values voters don't show up at the polls on Election Day, we're in danger of losing some of these."
Despite predictions from the national news media, Herrod remains optimistic that values voters will show up.
"Whether you look at the United States Congress and the battle to get judges that will interpret the law or whether you look at the marriage amendments in the eight states, I'm very hopeful that values voters understand the importance of this election," she said. "Forget anything the pundits are saying on the national level — it's time for us to get out and vote."
(In Arizona, this message sponsored by Protect Marriage Arizona, paid for by Focus on the Family, an out-of-state contributor. Major funding for Protect Marriage Arizona provided by The Center for Arizona Policy, United Families International, Christian Family Care Agency, Inc. and Focus on the Family)
(In Idaho, this message paid for by the Marriage Protection Alliance)
(In South Carolina and South Dakota, this message paid for by Focus on the Family, 8605 Explorer Drive, Colorado Springs, CO 80920)
(In Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin this message paid for by Focus on the Family Marriage Amendment Committee, 8605 Explorer Drive, Colorado Springs, CO 80920, Peter Brandt, Authorized Agent)
