In April of this year, the Iowa Supreme Court shocked the nation by legalizing same-sex marriage in the Hawkeye State. The court, aided and abetted by a complicit governor, succeeded in making Iowa one of the first states outside of New England to allow homosexual marriage.
But the fight over marriage in the Heartland is far from over. Indeed, that battle may take center stage as the 2010 election season begins to unfold.
From Dubuque to Sioux City, pro-family Iowans are standing up in droves to make their voices heard and put the court in its place. And Bob Vander Plaats is leading that chorus. The 46-year-old leadership consultant and former high-school teacher and basketball coach is running for governor. And although the election is more than a year away, he has already attracted a huge following — many of whom are energized by the bold pledge that Vander Plaats has made.
"On Day One," Vander Plaats tells audiences all over the state, "I will issue an executive order to put a stop to same-sex marriages in the state of Iowa until the people have the right to vote on it."
The reaction from the people of Iowa has been resounding. When a group of pastors in eastern Iowa invited him to speak on marriage, a crowd of 50 to 75 was expected. Instead, Vander Plaats arrived to an overflow crowd of 538 people jammed into the church.
But beyond the anecdotes, the power of Vander Plaats' pledge is reflected in public opinion polls. In the race for the Republican nomination for governor, Vander Plaats is up against veteran politicians like former House Speaker Chris Rants, state Sen. Jerry Behn, state Rep. Rod Roberts and Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley. Yet Vander Plaats, who has never held public office, holds a 3-to-1 lead over his nearest Republican competitor.
All of the elected officials he's competing with have pro-marriage voting records, and with varying degrees of resolve they have worked toward a state marriage-protection amendment in the Legislature. Even the other non-politician, businessman Christian Fong, takes a pro-marriage position.
But what sets Vander Plaats apart is his decisive commitment to take action as soon as he takes office. He calls his planned executive order the Foundation Proclamation, with an overt nod to Abraham Lincoln, who objected to the U.S. Supreme Court's Dred Scott decision and later issued his famous Emancipation Proclamation.
Perhaps part of his appeal to Iowans is that he clearly sees the big-picture danger that an out-of-control court poses to basic freedoms. As strongly as Vander Plaats believes in the sanctity of the God-ordained institution of marriage, he believes this face-off with the courts goes far beyond the issue of marriage. The Iowa Supreme Court, he told Citizen, "drove a car without a license," by claiming three powers it does not possess.
First, he says, "They legislated from the bench by saying Iowa will be a same-sex marriage state. They don't have that ability to make law; only the Legislature does."
Second, "They executed it from the bench by saying that all 99 counties will follow suit. They have no executive authority. That belongs solely to the governor of Iowa."
Third, "They intended to amend the constitution by saying they're holding up Iowa's constitution to an evolving standard. And obviously they don't have that ability. Only the people of Iowa have the ability to amend the constitution."
Vander Plaats warns Iowans that this power grab transcends marriage and threatens every one of our liberties. "If you continue to allow the Supreme Court to go outside its jurisdiction and to take power that isn't theirs," he said, "every one of your freedoms is up for grabs, whether it's private property, free enterprise, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of press, assembly, how you educate your children. And if we don't have an executive that is willing to hold that Supreme Court in check by issuing an executive order … our children will inherit tyranny, not liberty."
Should he win the Republican nomination in June, Vander Plaats will go head-to-head with incumbent Democrat Gov. Chet Culver, who reneged on a promise to Iowans that he would do "whatever it takes to protect marriage between a man and a woman." Just a few days after the Iowa Supreme Court ruled, Culver announced his opposition to a constitutional amendment to protect traditional marriage.
A GOP revival in 2010?
Vander Plaats also strikes a chord when he talks about running as a Republican "in spite of the Republican Party." Indeed, all over the country pro-family conservatives have been frustrated with the Republican Party's often lackluster response to core conservative issues. As a result, the GOP has suffered enormous losses in the last two elections, federally and in most states.
But widespread recognition of this problem has opened the door to some bold new leaders — such as Bob Vander Plaats — who offer hope for reinvigorating the Republican Party base. In addition, Americans are increasingly waking up to the radical agenda of the Democratic Party, which controls the White House and Congress. Combined, that spells a possible turnaround for the GOP in 2010.
Historical analysis also points to potentially big gains for Republicans in 2010. In the 16 mid-term elections since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 24 seats in the U.S. House. And that average jumps when the president's approval ratings drop below 50 percent, as President Obama's have in recent polls. With congressional approval ratings approaching record-low levels, Democrats will be further challenged.
Perhaps the most striking statistical advantage for Republicans in 2010 is that, as a result of the drubbings the party took in 2006 and 2008, very few Republican members of the U.S. House represent traditionally Democratic districts, while scores of Democrats represent traditionally Republican districts. Political analyst Charlie Cook notes that there are 83 House Democrats who represent districts carried by George W. Bush in 2004, while there are just six House Republicans from districts won by John Kerry.
The bottom line is that Republicans will be operating in a target-rich environment in 2010, while Democrats will be put on the defensive.
On the other hand, the U.S. Senate historically has been less impacted by mid-term elections, and in 2010 Senate Democrats will enjoy some battleground advantages that should limit Republican gains. That's because Republicans will be forced to defend numerous open seats as a result of GOP retirements. In addition, nearly half of the 40 seats held by Republicans will be up for election, compared to fewer than a third of Democratic seats. Still, Republicans could gain some ground in the Senate due to the increasing vulnerability of leading Democrats such as Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
Virginia and New Jersey may give clues
While most of the nation focuses on the 2010 elections, a few states have elections this November that could prove to be leading indicators for next year's trends. No state will be watched more closely than Virginia. The Old Dominion State, a Republican stronghold in recent decades, has veered sharply to the Left in the last three years, with Democrats having taken both U.S. Senate seats and gaining control of the state Senate.
"This is a make-or-break election for Virginia," says Victoria Cobb, president of The Family Foundation in Rich-mond. Virginia's big race this fall is the governor's race, where Attorney General Bob McDonnell, the Republican, is squaring off against state Sen. Creigh Deeds, the Democrat. McDonnell has a vibrant pro-family record and has been targeted by Deeds for his pro-family statements and staunch pro-life voting record. But it is Deeds' record — includ-ing his support for partial-birth abortion — that may prove more controversial in Virginia. As Citizen goes to press, McDonnell is maintaining a lead over Deeds.
Cobb's group, which is associated with Focus on the Family, is taking unprecedented steps to ensure that pro-family Virginians are registered, informed and actually vote. With 11 extra staffers, their "Winning Matters" project team is working with pastors, running voter-registration drives, distributing up to a million voter guides and conducting a major voter-turnout campaign.
Up the coast in New Jersey, Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie is, at press time, maintaining a lead over incumbent Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine, who is pouring tens of millions of his own money into protecting his seat. While Christie cannot be considered a champion of family issues, he supports many pro-life policies and would be the most socially conservative governor New Jersey has had in many years.
Social conservatives are mobilizing in the Garden State as well, led by Len Deo of the New Jersey Family Policy Council. In addition to voter guides and mailers to educate voters, Deo is planning a 21-county, 21-day tour to sound the alarm on key issues like same-sex marriage, and to activate pro-family citizens in every part of the state.
Should Republicans retake one of these gubernatorial offices — and particularly if they win both — it will clearly signal that the euphoria over President Obama has ended and that a new political wind is blowing.
For 2010 candidates like Bob Vander Plaats, a slight tailwind may be all that is needed to breeze to victory.
John Paulton is political editor for Citizen magazine.
Paid for by Focus on the Family Action.
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